It seems that the bloggers on this here site post regularly about things near and dear to their hearts. Jambo posts regularly about science-y stuff, and Hammer regularly posts about his precious Packers. I am regularly posting about movies (regularly for me, which is once) to go on record as saying Brokeback Mountain is going to win the Best Picture Oscar, and Ang Lee will win best director. I might even be so bold as to say Philip Seymour Hoffman is getting Best Actor for his lovely work in Capote, but I don't want to jinx him.
You, TWN reader, get these predictions weeks before the Oscar nominations are even announced, AND before the Golden Globes.
I know this because I have my finger on the pulse of the Academy, having finished in the top three of my annual Oscar picks competition during each of the past six years. No, I haven't actually won the whole thing, I've tied for first a few times, but what have you ever done? (Note to Jambo: this is a rhetorical question.)
I think it will win for a few of reasons:
1. it's quite pretty to look at.
2. it's a good way to recognize the performances, especially Heath Ledger's, without actually giving Oscars to any of the actors.
3. Ang Lee has done enough good stuff in the past to "deserve" a win, which shouldn't matter but does. And I don't care what you say. I liked The Incredible Hulk. Actually, maybe I should have put that in as a disclaimer at the beginning of this entry.
4. the members of the academy will feel like do-gooders if they vote for it because they think people will be more likely to see it if it wins.
5. it's pretty darn good.
Rhetorical? Damn. Well be that as it may I'll have you know I've predicted an Oscar winner or two myself, missy. I also thought Brokeback Mountain was a very good film and would not be surprised if it won but I guessing the smart money is on Munich, more because of the way the Academy works than because it is a superior film. There is no doubt a site out there (cue Joseph) that posts Oscar odds and I'm sure Steven Spielberg is always a pretty safe bet. I have not seen Munich yet but hope to soon since I have seen a number of the other films I think likely to get a best picture nomination. I'll maybe wait until then to make my "real" predictions but off the top of my head I'll say the above films will be joined by Capote and Syriana. I'll have to find a list of the year's films to make a guess at number 5. Did The New World open any place in December? I have read very little about it but that seems a likely contender if it is even half way decent.
Libby Mae has never been much of a Philip Seymour Hoffman fan, I think she likes her leading men a little hunkier, but he is a shoo-in for a nomination for Capote. I'll even go out on a limb and predict what scene they'll show at the ceremony: the one where he tells the high school girl that they are alike because everyone thinks they know all about him and everyone is wrong. (my only hesitation in that prediction is that the scene might not be quite long enough for them to use.) There is no one who has been more unjustly overlooked at Oscar time than he has so it's about time he got some recognition. For that reason I hope he wins but I actually think the best performance I saw this year was Heath Ledger in Brokeback Mountain.
I'll do some research and post a bigger list of my predictions in the next week or so. Other than the gimme picks of Wallace & Gromit, Corpse Bride and Robots for best animated feature. (Sorry Pooh.)
Safest bet, year in and year out: the best documentary of the year will not be nominated, and if by chance it is, it won't win.
I haven't seen Capote (oddly enough, it hasn't arrived in rural South Dakota), but Hoffman must eventually win an Oscar. I thought he was absolutely fantastic in Boogie Nights (maybe even better than John C. Reilly, Hammer).
Aside: I was in the video store with my girlfriend (now wife) and had Boogie Nights in my hand. Her aunt and cousin walked in. She introduced us, and we chatted for a bit -- me, with that video held behind my back so they wouldn't see it! I am such a wuss.
Hoffman was great in Boogie Nights, no question. So was Don Cheadle. I didn't think Burt Reynolds did anything special. Heather Graham's performance was as expected. She's limited in acting by her lack of talent.
That all said, Chest Rockwell (John C Reilly) stole the f'n show.
Jambo, Munich is the reason why I think I am being all bold and exciting by posting my prediction now. I think if Spielberg hadn't already won, I would be more willing to buy into your "the way the Academy works" argument. I think Academy voters will see voting for this movie as a way to get middle America to see a movie about gay people, and therefore not hate them anymore. Sadly, I think even with a Best Picture Oscar, middle America still won't see this movie.
I believe The New World opened in time to be considered for the Oscars in the big important cities (not mine). I think the reception has been lukewarm.
Joseph, I believe I heard that the best documentary I saw this year (okay, one of only a couple) is not even in contention for a documentary Oscar for some ridiculous reason. That would be Grizzly Man.
We saw Brokeback a couple weeks ago, when it finally made it to suburbia. Just a breath-taking piece of work, Ang Lee was at the top of his game, the script was dynamite, and Heath Ledger was just phenomenal. He perfectly captured that American West archtype that I grew up with. The best movie I have seen this year.
By 10:47 AM, at
Hoffman might be my pick for the most talented actor working today just based on the range of parts he can pull off. Think Boogie Nights, Magnolia, Happiness, State and Main, Almost Famous and 25th Hour (still the most underrated film of what ever year it was out). All that's left is a roll as a badass tough guy and I'll say there's nothing he can't play. The only guy off the top of my head I can think might be better is Ben Kingsly (I'm still amazed by his turn in Sexy Beast.) Boogie Nights is full of great performances, including Burt Reynolds--think of the scene where he visits the Colonel in jail--and Heather Graham. She's great in the scene where Juliann Moore agrees to let her call her Mom. John C is fine but NOT better than Hoffman. Watch him in the scenes where he is not main character like when Dirk and Reed (Chest is a character Reed plays) are buying shirts or when Dirk freaks and walks out on Jack. Scotty looks like he is on the verge of tears. (Trivia: Amber's ex-husband is played by John Doe from "X" and his lawyer is Mr. Carlin from the old Bob Newhart show.)
I had not heard Grizzle Man was out. I assumed it would be in there with March of the Penguins, Wild Parrots of Telegraph Hill, and maybe something that DOESN'T have animals in it. Like maybe the Enron film, tho those guys were certainly weasels.)
If Brokeback Mountain had been set in Jerjo's part of the west it might have been Brokeback Hill, or more likely Brokeback Overpass. That said, yes there is certainly an element of character that is recognizable to those of us who grew up in parts of the country where the tallest building was a grain elevator.
"...Heather Graham. She's great in the scene where Juliann Moore agrees to let her call her Mom."
Yeah, Jambo. That's the scence you remember HG for.
Jambo, PSH plays the baddie in MI 3, due out later this year. I don't know if he will be a badass tough guy, or a nerdy Bill Gates-style evil genius, but I do know that movie will probably suck.
By 1:40 PM, at
Jambo, you forgot Hoffman's excellent work in Twister as...
Who did he play again? I remember nothing about that movie, save Manny the Hippie's review -- Helen Hunt: Dank! The rest of the movie: Schwag!
Ah, Hammer is no doubt referring to the scene where Rollergirl refuses to take off her skates. No two ways about it, she is totally hot. And totally naked except for the aforementioned skates. But I have seen the film enough times that believe it or not that really ISN'T the scene I think of when I remember her in the movie. I actually think of the long tracking shot at the beginning and the later scene where she beats up the guy who they lure into the limo, mainly because it is so unexpectedly violent. Truth be told, if you mention HG out of the blue my first mental image is actually Felicity Shagwell in that very very short knit skirt. [Homer voice]Gaaa, short knit skirt![Homer voice]
What was I thinking? I had forgotten all about Madagascar so drop Robots from the comment above.
Granted, I've only seen bits of Robots, but those bits were better than anything I saw in Madagascar (though the lemurs were kinda cute). Wallace & Gromit was superior to either of them.
I am expert on animated children's movies. Neither Madagascar nor Robots was very good. I think Barbie's the Magic of Pegasus was better than both, and that was straight to DVD.
Madagascar was not great by any means but it will easily get the nomination. Personally I enjoyed the thought of the monkeys throwing poo at Tom Wolfe. I just saw W and G this weekend and thought it was great. I really enjoyed the Corpse Bride as well, which will be getting a best song nomination I'm guessing.
If Barbie is anything like the book I am sure it went straight to video only because theater owners feared the prospect of cleaning up all that blood from fathers slitting their wrists half way thru the film. I now admit there is one big disadvantage to having girls.
A) They weren't monkeys, they were lemurs. Lemurs aren't monkeys.
B) Is the book in 3-D? 'Nuff said.
Hey man, I know my primates. I'm talking about the chimps in the zoo who get caught escaping. "If you have any poo, throw it now."<< Home