According to USA Today:
In Minnesota, where Republicans hope to pick up an open seat, Democrat Amy Klobuchar led Republican Mark Kennedy by 10 points among likely voters, by 7 points among registered voters.
The state's gubernatorial race was almost even: GOP incumbent Tim Pawlenty trailed Democrat Mike Hatch by a single point among likely voters but led him by 4 points among registered voters.
I don't see Hatch unseating Pawlenty. The Republican shell game won't be fully obvious to voters for a few more years. Pawlenty projects an "aww, shucks" likability that makes cuts to early childhood education seem palatable to some. I doubt Hatch can combat that.
Kerry beat Bush by 3.5 percentage points in 2004. A 10 point Klobuchar victory seems unlikely. That means Makeover Mark will likely seize the momentum and narrow the gap between now and election day. It'll be up to Klobuchar to be ready to answer when that bell rings.