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Thursday, November 09, 2006

Power Line predictions

Posted by: Hammer / 7:35 AM

The predictions in this Power Line post amuse me to no end. Note that the post is time stamped at 10:58 p.m. November 7:

It's still unclear, however, whether they will scrape by with a net gain of 15-20 seats, or score a bigger victory. Right now it looks like the former;

...In the Senate, Jim Talent and George Allen are the firewall. Talent looks solid, Allen down to the wire in a race that shouldn't have been this close. Still, at the end of the day it doesn't look like the Dems will take the Senate.

...I take that to mean that Pawlenty may win an unexpectedly easy victory, since there is no way that Kiffmeyer and Anderson are going to lose by 12 to 15 points. But they may indeed lose, and my interpretation, as to Pawlenty's race, may prove optimistic.

With 10 races still undecided, CNN reports the Dems gained 29 seats. That would be the latter, not the former in the Power Line prediction.

Talent looked solid to Power Line, but lost by 41,000 votes. Pending certification of the Virginia result, the Dems do take the Senate.

Pawlenty won by 21,000 votes -- I don't think that's unexpectedly easy, but that's open to interpretation. Kiffmeyer lost by 5 points; Anderson lost by 10. So Power Line's predictions are pretty solid on that score.

If you make your predictions after the polls close, shouldn't they be more accurate? In the week before the election, I made one prediction. Bachmann wouldn't get 54 (Kennedy's number in 2004) and Wetterling wouldn't get 46 (her number in 2004). I was right on both counts: Bachmann 50, Wetterling 42, Binkowski 8.


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