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Thursday, November 09, 2006
Power Line v. Minnesota Poll
According to Google there have been about 180 Power Line posts about the Minnesota poll. A smattering:
The Minneapolis Star Tribune reported yesterday what it termed the "surprising" result of its own Minnesota Poll, which showed Democrat Amy Klobuchar leading Republican Mark Kennedy for the state's vacant Senate seat 50% to 31%.
Those who are familiar with the dreadful history of the Strib's Minnesota Poll weren't so surprised. As Scott has detailed here, here, and elsewhere, the Minnesota Poll has a track record of being consistently wrong that is now nearly thirty years old. Moreover, like a golfer with a bad slice, it is consistently wrong in the same direction--it favors Democrats.
This morning, the Star Tribune struck again, with a Minnesota Poll purporting to show Democrat Amy Klobuchar, the Hennepin County Attorney who is presiding over a crime wave, with a 24-point lead over Congressman Mark Kennedy. No one believes that this result bears any relationship to reality.
The Star Tribune’s Minnesota Poll is instrumental in suppressing Republican morale. It tends to tilt Democratic compared with actual election results, a tilt that the Star Tribune’s pollster has comically attributed to a traditional Republican closing surge in Minnesota.
The November 4 Minnesota Poll said:
Likely voters interviewed Tuesday through Friday in the Minnesota Poll favored Hatch over Pawlenty 45 percent to 40 percent, while the Independence Party's Peter Hutchinson lagged far behind with 7 percent. Hatch's lead is within the poll's margin of sampling error of 3.2 percentage points, plus or minus.
In the U.S. Senate race, DFLer Amy Klobuchar continues to hold a large lead, 54 percent to 34 percent, over Republican Mark Kennedy.
Pawlenty won by less than a full percentage point. Klobuchar won 20 points -- the exact margin of the Minnesota Poll. Looks to me that the Minnesota Poll was pretty accurate, after all.
