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Monday, July 17, 2006

More on the supply side magic

Posted by: Hammer / 1:39 PM

Kevin Drum takes on the Laffer curve:

Indeed. But Greg Ip and Deborah Solomon point out something a bit peculiar today in the Wall Street Journal. (The news pages, that is. You won't find this on the editorial page.) Here's the conundrum: if tax revenues are 5% higher than projected thanks to the economy-boosting magic of tax cuts, shouldn't the economy itself be larger than projected too? But it's not. Economic growth is only 0.1% higher than projected six months ago.

Economic growth is a boring "as expected" (although, to be fair, overall economic growth has been good to very good lately) -- yet tax revenues are higher than expected. Drum posits that this is because of the division of the spoils of the economic expansion. He might well be right, but let me suggest something a wee bit simpler: tax revenues are higher than expected because the administration wanted to exceed expectations. I'll see if I can find a comparison between the CBO and the White House on economic growth and tax revenue projections for 2006.

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